Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
